This is a generic concept of "intelligence analysis" or intelligent
Step one: Find a correlated variable. For example, addiction.
Step two: Apply the variable to a network. For example, a large
population may be highly affected by addiction. It may result in
organized crime, a need for policing, etc.
Step three: In a specific case, find out whether the variable has
relevance. This may be done for example, with the idea of risky
behavior. How likely is it that someone engages in risky
behavior? How likely is it that the correlated variable is
interacting with the individual's network? If the person might be
engaging in risky behavior, then a cohort analysis says that there
is such-and-such likelihood of specific risks, such as those that
Step four: Has the individual avoided the variable in the past?
Then the analysis predicts that they will continue to avoid the
variable, unless they have begun to take risks.
Step five: Now, if you want to know, does a whole nation have
citizens with a particular profile, cohort risk, etc.? Then if it is a
significant population, then the whole nation is at risk of activities
which reflect those behaviors.
(Step six: Optionally, what national activities reflect large
patterns of individual behavior? What national profile
characteristics predict specialized national behavior? This may
require intelligence investigation.)
---I didn't really learn this directly: I learned it through
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